How Much Money Do OpenAI And Anthropic Actually Make?

Source: Where’s Your Ed At Date: 2025-08-01 URL: https://www.wheresyoured.at/howmuchmoney/

Summary

Zitron exposes how OpenAI and Anthropic systematically inflate revenue figures using “annualized recurring revenue” — a private-company metric that takes one month’s income and multiplies by 12, ignoring seasonality, churn, and actual cash received. OpenAI’s actual 2024 revenue was ~$3.6 billion against projections of $4+ billion; through July 2025 they’d generated ~$5.27 billion with decelerating monthly growth (12.7% down to 9.5%). Anthropic generated ~$1.5 billion through July 2025, well below leaked “$4-5 billion” figures. Both companies’ growth trajectories are slowing, and the conflicting headline numbers ($12B vs $13B ARR announced days apart) suggest active manipulation of calculation methods.

Implications

• ARR is a fraud vector. The metric is deliberately chosen because it maximizes the headline number without obligation to report actual cash or audited figures. Every AI company using ARR should be assumed to be managing perception, not reporting performance.
• Deceleration is the key data point. Both companies are growing but slowing — in a market supposedly at inflection, that’s bearish. The projections used to justify current valuations require acceleration, not deceleration.
• Watch: Q3 2025 revenue guidance revisions, when OpenAI’s next fundraise requires fresh numbers, and whether any investor pushes for audited financials instead of ARR claims.