The AI Bubble’s Impossible Promises

Source: Where’s Your Ed At Date: 2025-10-10 URL: https://www.wheresyoured.at/the-ai-bubbles-impossible-promises/

Summary

Ed argues AI infrastructure commitments are physically impossible to deliver on stated timelines: Stargate Abilene currently has 200MW of available power but needs 1.7GW minimum; data center power infrastructure requires 2-4 years under ideal conditions; GPU chips depreciate rapidly as NVIDIA releases new generations yearly; no company has ever built a gigawatt data center. Conclusion: “all of those data center deals you’ve seen announced are basically bullshit” — financially unsustainable fantasies driven by bubble economics, not engineering reality.

Implications

• AI financial sustainability. Physical constraints on announced capacity commitments means the revenue projections built on those capacity plans are also impossible to achieve within the claimed timeline — the whole buildout schedule is a fiction.
• Vendor BS detection. Announced data center partnerships creating news and moving stock prices while being physically undeliverable within the claimed timeframe is documented here with specific power numbers — the gap between announcement and reality is measurable.
• Capital markets. Rapid GPU depreciation compounds the problem: the chips being bought today to fill capacity that won’t exist for 2-4 years will be obsolete by the time the capacity is ready.